Wednesday, March 12, 2003

In order for Bush to win U.N. support for his pre-emptive war on Iraq, he must gain the support of eight other countries on the 15-member U.N. Security Council and avoid a veto by any of the five permanent members (U.S.; Great Britain; France; Russia; China). This is all but impossible as France and Russia have both made it clear they will veto a move to go to war at this time. Since Bush intends to go to war either way, he is simply trying to garner majority support from the Council to use as diplomatic cover when he ignores the veto. As best I can tell, the only thing that would halt Bush from going forward with the war now would be for Saddam to personally hand over the keys to the Iraqi oil fields to Dick Cheney.

It will be interesting to see if Bush can arm-twist enough of the little countries to get his 9-vote majority. Here is how the field looks right now:

Countries in favor of war:

United States
Great Britain
Spain
Bulgaria


Countries opposed:

France
Russia
China
Germany
Syria

The so-called Undecideds:

Mexico
Chile
Pakistan
Cameroon
Guinea
Angola







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