Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Landslide dreaming

All the national polls have swung back Obama’s way which would explain the noticable absence of TTFKAM (The Troll Formerly Known As Mark) from the comments. He apparently only crawls out from under his rock to pick at me whenever the polls show John McCain leading. Now that the tide has turned he has slithered away again.
There is a cool website here that allows you to color each state red or blue to see how the election would play out under different scenarios.
Right now you start off giving each candidate their gimme states. McCain gets Texas, the Deep South, and most of the Mountain West. Obama gets California and the Pacific Coast, Illinois, New York and all of New England.
Then you have to figure out how to divvy up the “swing” states.
If Obama can lock up the Mid-West and Great Lakes region (minus Indiana, plus Pennsylvania). He wins by the slimmest of margins. That means Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Missouri.
But there are other pick-ups more likely than Missouri, such as New Mexico and Colorado; Virginia and North Carolina; Ohio and maybe even Indiana; and, of course, Florida.
If any of those state combinations start to flow to Obama, then get ready for a landslide.
Right now, I have high hopes for Virginia. Mark Warner is doing so well in his Senate race over hapless Republican Jim Gilmore that I think he could deliver the state for Obama on his coattails.


The polling news just keeps getting better.
The new Washington Post/ABC News poll has Obama up a whopping 9 points — 52 to 43.
And Hotline/Diageo has Obama opening up a six point lead — 48 to 42, the biggest spread in their polling to date.
And even Rasmussen finally shows Obama starting to pull away 49 to 47.

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